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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Amanda Nunes won · U-DEC R5

Elo1501

Elo1497

Amanda NunesvsGermaine de RandamieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Saturday, December 14, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Amanda Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Nunes: WrestlervsGermaine de Randamie: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Amanda Nunes wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Amanda Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Nunes at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Amanda Nunes has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Nunes

Red Corner

Germaine de Randamie

Blue Corner

-460

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+365

(22%)

1501

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda NunesW2 streak

oldest →

vs Felicia Spencer · Jun 20

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Mar 21

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Dec 21

vs Julianna Pena · Jul 22

vs Irene Aldana · Jun 23

latest

Germaine de Randamie

oldest →

KOvs Anna Elmose · May 16

vs Holly Holm · Feb 17

vs Raquel Pennington · Nov 18

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Oct 20

vs Norma Dumont · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda NunesMetricGermaine de Randamie

4.55

Strikes / min

2.57

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

57%

Strike defense

65%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

0.00

82%

Takedown defense

65%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.93Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda NunesGermaine de Randamie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Nunes(10 fights)Germaine de Randamie(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.1|Blue -4.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda NunesTargetGermaine de Randamie

By target zone

39% acc · 80%

Head

40% acc · 48%

67% acc · 5%

Body

73% acc · 28%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 19%

Distance

45% acc · 48%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

92% acc · 30%

46% acc · 78%

Ground

50% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Nunes rounds

even

Germaine de Randamie rounds

Round 1Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns2

Control2:53

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:21

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 4Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control4:16

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 5Amanda Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control4:46

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 184

Sig Strikes

40 / 73

33.6%

Sig Str %

54.2%

199 / 337

Total Strikes

126 / 175

8 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

76.4%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

18:29

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Germaine de Randamie	11 / 23	22 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Amanda Nunes	42 / 87	43 / 88	2 / 2	2
2	Germaine de Randamie	16 / 30	29 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Amanda Nunes	9 / 26	33 / 51	2 / 3	0
3	Germaine de Randamie	8 / 10	17 / 20	0 / 0	0
3	Amanda Nunes	16 / 44	47 / 80	1 / 2	0
4	Amanda Nunes	12 / 24	22 / 39	2 / 3	0
4	Germaine de Randamie	4 / 6	28 / 33	0 / 0	1
5	Germaine de Randamie	1 / 4	30 / 43	0 / 0	0
5	Amanda Nunes	0 / 3	54 / 79	1 / 1	0

Amanda Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights18

Germaine de Randamie

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9