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Women's Strawweight

5 Rounds

Jessica Andrade won · SUB R1

Elo1488

Elo1484

Amanda LemosvsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Saturday, April 23, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jessica Andrade won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:13

Style matchupAmanda Lemos: Well-roundedvsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jessica Andrade wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Jessica Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jessica Andrade at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Lemos

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1488

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'1"

165.1 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda LemosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25

vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda LemosMetricJessica Andrade

2.75

Strikes / min

6.37

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

45%

Strike defense

54%

1.02

TDs / 15 min

2.10

63%

Takedown defense

75%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.26Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda LemosJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Lemos(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.7|Blue -4.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda LemosTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

33% acc · 57%

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 43%

Leg

40% acc · 67%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Lemos rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Amanda Lemos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 17

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

41%

Sig Str %

33%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

3 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Andrade	3 / 9	3 / 9	0 / 1	1
1	Amanda Lemos	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 0	0

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30