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Women's Strawweight
3 Rounds
Gillian Robertson won · U-DEC R3
Elo1488
Amanda Lemos editorial illustration
Elo1544
Gillian Robertson editorial illustration

Amanda LemosvsGillian RobertsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gillian Robertson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAmanda Lemos: Well-roundedvsGillian Robertson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Gillian Robertson wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Gillian Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gillian Robertson at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Gillian Robertson enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Gillian Robertson threatens submissions; Amanda Lemos has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Gillian Robertson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Amanda Lemos has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Lemos (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Lemos
Red Corner
VS
Gillian Robertson
Blue Corner
+194
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
1488
Elo
1544
39
Age
31
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda Lemos
oldest →
L
vs Zhang Weili · Aug 23
W
vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24
L
SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24
W
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25
L
vs Tatiana Suarez · Sep 25
latest
Gillian RobertsonW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · Jun 23
W
KOvs Polyana Viana · Jan 24
W
vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Jun 24
W
vs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 24
W
KOvs Marina Rodriguez · May 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda LemosMetricGillian Robertson
2.75
Strikes / min
2.71
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
2.86
45%
Strike defense
56%
1.02
TDs / 15 min
2.76
63%
Takedown defense
38%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.26evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1558 vs 1586Strikes2.8 vs 2.7Takedowns1.0 vs 2.8Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.90Form-0.2 vs 0.9
Amanda LemosGillian Robertson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Amanda Lemos(10 fights)Gillian Robertson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -55.9|Blue +55.9
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda LemosTargetGillian Robertson

By target zone

31
51% acc · 74%
Head
5
42% acc · 42%
8
100% acc · 19%
Body
2
50% acc · 17%
3
75% acc · 7%
Leg
5
50% acc · 42%

By position

27
47% acc · 64%
Distance
10
43% acc · 83%
2
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 8%
13
93% acc · 31%
Ground
1
50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Amanda Lemos rounds
1
even
1
Gillian Robertson rounds
Round 1Amanda Lemos edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control1:40
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:38Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:14
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:06Control
Round 3Gillian Robertson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:10
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:33Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
42 / 73
Sig Strikes
12 / 26
53.3%
Sig Str %
53.7%
51 / 84
Total Strikes
64 / 81
1 / 1
TDs
3 / 7
100%
TD %
58.3%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
2
2:04
Ctrl Time
9:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gillian Robertson5 / 159 / 201 / 20
1Amanda Lemos25 / 3727 / 390 / 00
2Gillian Robertson2 / 326 / 281 / 10
2Amanda Lemos10 / 1911 / 221 / 10
3Gillian Robertson5 / 829 / 331 / 40
3Amanda Lemos7 / 1713 / 230 / 01

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights15

Gillian Robertson

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights20