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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cynthia Calvillo won · SUB R1

Elo1369

Elo1455

Amanda CoopervsCynthia CalvilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cynthia Calvillo won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:19

Style matchupAmanda Cooper: Submission grapplervsCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Amanda Cooper wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Cynthia Calvillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Amanda Cooper at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo threatens submissions; Amanda Cooper has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Cynthia Calvillo has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cynthia Calvillo has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Amanda Cooper (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Amanda Cooper

Red Corner

Cynthia Calvillo

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1369

Elo

1455

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Amanda CooperL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tatiana Suarez · Jul 16

vs Anna Elmose · Nov 16

KOvs Angela Magana · Dec 17

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · May 18

vs Ashley Yoder · Nov 18

latest

Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Amanda CooperMetricCynthia Calvillo

3.55

Strikes / min

4.41

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

4.12

51%

Strike defense

64%

1.53

TDs / 15 min

1.80

28%

Takedown defense

77%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Amanda CooperCynthia Calvillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Amanda Cooper(6 fights)Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -85.9|Blue +85.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Amanda CooperTargetCynthia Calvillo

By target zone

22% acc · 86%

Head

20% acc · 23%

100% acc · 14%

Body

86% acc · 46%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

26% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Amanda Cooper rounds

even

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 28

Sig Strikes

13 / 26

25%

Sig Str %

50%

8 / 29

Total Strikes

15 / 29

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cynthia Calvillo	13 / 26	15 / 29	1 / 1	3
1	Amanda Cooper	7 / 28	8 / 29	0 / 1	0

Amanda Cooper

StanceSwitch

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights6

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12