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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jordan Rinaldi won · Submission R1
Elo1367
Alvaro Herrera
Elo1491

Alvaro HerreravsJordan RinaldiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Jordan Rinaldi won

Submission · Round 1 · 2:01

Model Prediction: Jordan Rinaldi wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Jordan Rinaldi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Rinaldi at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jordan Rinaldi threatens submissions; Alvaro Herrera has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Alvaro Herrera
Red Corner
VS
Jordan Rinaldi
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
1367
Elo
1491
27
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alvaro HerreraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Vernon Ramos · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jul 16
L
KOvs Devin Powell · Jul 18
latest
Jordan Rinaldi
oldest →
L
vs Abel Trujillo · May 16
L
KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 18
W
vs Jason Knight · Nov 18
L
vs Arnold Allen · Mar 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alvaro HerreraMetricJordan Rinaldi
—
Strikes / min
1.56
—
Strikes absorbed / min
2.32
—
Strike defense
59%
—
TDs / 15 min
1.45
—
Takedown defense
20%
—
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1485Strikes8.0 vs 18.0Takedowns0.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form-0.3 vs -0.9
Alvaro HerreraJordan Rinaldi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alvaro Herrera(4 fights)Jordan Rinaldi(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -124.8|Blue +124.8
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -39.0|Blue +39.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alvaro Herrera

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights1

Jordan Rinaldi

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights5