← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Louis Smolka won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1425

Alptekin OzkilicvsLouis SmolkaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · Wednesday, January 15, 2014Duluth, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Louis Smolka won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlptekin Ozkilic: WrestlervsLouis Smolka: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Alptekin Ozkilic wins(84.6%)

Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alptekin Ozkilic at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alptekin Ozkilic has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Alptekin Ozkilic has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alptekin Ozkilic

Red Corner

Louis Smolka

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+248

(29%)

1355

Elo

1425

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'9"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alptekin OzkilicL2 streak

oldest →

vs Darren Uyenoyama · Dec 13

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 14

KOvs Ben Nguyen · May 15

latest

Louis SmolkaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19

SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20

KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20

KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21

KOvs Davey Grant · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alptekin OzkilicMetricLouis Smolka

3.81

Strikes / min

4.67

5.72

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

59%

Strike defense

53%

4.21

TDs / 15 min

1.69

75%

Takedown defense

32%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.91Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alptekin OzkilicLouis Smolka

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alptekin Ozkilic(4 fights)Louis Smolka(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -70.2|Blue +70.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alptekin OzkilicTargetLouis Smolka

By target zone

27% acc · 73%

Head

33% acc · 76%

52% acc · 25%

Body

63% acc · 21%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

25% acc · 68%

Distance

29% acc · 54%

80% acc · 27%

Clinch

73% acc · 26%

38% acc · 5%

Ground

46% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alptekin Ozkilic rounds

even

Louis Smolka rounds

Round 1Alptekin Ozkilic edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns3

Control1:54

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Alptekin Ozkilic edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns3

Control1:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Louis Smolka edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control0:36

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 193

Sig Strikes

92 / 245

29.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

63 / 196

Total Strikes

96 / 249

9 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

70%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

1:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Louis Smolka	16 / 46	16 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Alptekin Ozkilic	22 / 67	22 / 67	3 / 3	0
2	Louis Smolka	22 / 86	23 / 87	0 / 0	0
2	Alptekin Ozkilic	26 / 71	29 / 74	3 / 6	0
3	Louis Smolka	54 / 113	57 / 116	0 / 1	1
3	Alptekin Ozkilic	12 / 55	12 / 55	3 / 5	0

Alptekin Ozkilic

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4

Louis Smolka

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17