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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Ben Nguyen won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Alptekin Ozkilic
Elo1369
Ben Nguyen

Alptekin OzkilicvsBen NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Ben Nguyen won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupAlptekin Ozkilic: WrestlervsBen Nguyen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alptekin Ozkilic wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Ben Nguyen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alptekin Ozkilic at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alptekin Ozkilic
Red Corner
VS
Ben Nguyen
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1355
Elo
1369
40
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'5"
Height
5'5"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alptekin OzkilicL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Darren Uyenoyama · Dec 13
L
vs Louis Smolka · Jan 14
L
KOvs John Lineker · Jul 14
latest
Ben NguyenL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16
W
vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16
W
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18
L
vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alptekin OzkilicMetricBen Nguyen
3.81
Strikes / min
3.51
5.72
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
59%
Strike defense
59%
4.21
TDs / 15 min
0.25
75%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.91Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes58.3 vs —Takedowns4.3 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Alptekin OzkilicBen Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Alptekin Ozkilic(4 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -14.4|Blue +14.4
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -48.5|Blue +48.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.4|Blue +49.4
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alptekin OzkilicTargetBen Nguyen

By target zone

13
29% acc · 87%
Head
18
37% acc · 67%
2
50% acc · 13%
Body
2
100% acc · 7%
0
Leg
7
78% acc · 26%

By position

7
22% acc · 47%
Distance
18
38% acc · 67%
3
50% acc · 20%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 4%
5
45% acc · 33%
Ground
8
89% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alptekin Ozkilic rounds
0
even
1
Ben Nguyen rounds
Round 1Ben Nguyen edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:38
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
15 / 49
Sig Strikes
27 / 60
30%
Sig Str %
45%
28 / 62
Total Strikes
27 / 60
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
33%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:38
Ctrl Time
0:23

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ben Nguyen27 / 6027 / 600 / 10
1Alptekin Ozkilic15 / 4928 / 621 / 30

Alptekin Ozkilic

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights4

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7