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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
William Knight won · U-DEC R3
Elo1525
Alonzo Menifield
Elo1451

Alonzo MenifieldvsWilliam KnightUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · Saturday, December 4, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

William Knight won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alonzo Menifield wins(55.5%)

Actual result: William Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alonzo Menifield at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • William Knight enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alonzo Menifield has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alonzo Menifield has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alonzo Menifield
Red Corner
VS
William Knight
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1525
Elo
1451
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
5'10"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alonzo Menifield
oldest →
L
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 24
W
vs Julius Walker · Feb 25
W
vs Oumar Sy · Jun 25
L
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 25
W
KOvs Zhang Mingyang · May 26
latest
William KnightL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Da-Un Jung · Apr 21
W
KOvs Fabio Cherant · Aug 21
L
vs Maxim Grishin · Feb 22
L
KOvs Devin Clark · Apr 22
L
vs Marcin Prachnio · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alonzo MenifieldMetricWilliam Knight
3.77
Strikes / min
2.62
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
3.30
50%
Strike defense
35%
0.50
TDs / 15 min
1.78
78%
Takedown defense
48%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1515Strikes3.8 vs 2.6Takedowns0.6 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.40Form0.5 vs 0.3
Alonzo MenifieldWilliam Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Alonzo Menifield(10 fights)William Knight(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +74.0|Blue -74.0
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alonzo MenifieldTargetWilliam Knight

By target zone

34
51% acc · 77%
Head
32
39% acc · 58%
8
100% acc · 18%
Body
14
74% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 5%
Leg
9
90% acc · 16%

By position

44
57% acc · 100%
Distance
38
41% acc · 69%
0
Clinch
10
100% acc · 18%
0
Ground
7
88% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alonzo Menifield rounds
0
even
2
William Knight rounds
Round 1William Knight edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control3:07
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Alonzo Menifield edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3William Knight edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control3:18
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
44 / 77
Sig Strikes
55 / 111
54.3%
Sig Str %
56.3%
66 / 99
Total Strikes
82 / 139
0 / 2
TDs
1 / 4
0%
TD %
16.5%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
1
6:25
Ctrl Time
0:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1William Knight19 / 2531 / 371 / 30
1Alonzo Menifield6 / 1213 / 190 / 20
2William Knight17 / 5617 / 560 / 10
2Alonzo Menifield30 / 5030 / 500 / 00
3William Knight19 / 3034 / 460 / 00
3Alonzo Menifield8 / 1523 / 300 / 00

Alonzo Menifield

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights17

William Knight

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7