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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alonzo Menifield won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1525

Elo1473

Alonzo MenifieldvsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Alonzo Menifield won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:19

Style matchupAlonzo Menifield: Well-roundedvsPaul Craig: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alonzo Menifield wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Alonzo Menifield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alonzo Menifield at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alonzo Menifield has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alonzo Menifield

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1525

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alonzo Menifield

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 24

vs Julius Walker · Feb 25

vs Oumar Sy · Jun 25

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 25

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · May 26

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alonzo MenifieldMetricPaul Craig

3.77

Strikes / min

2.50

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

50%

Strike defense

43%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.43

78%

Takedown defense

35%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alonzo MenifieldPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alonzo Menifield(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.5|Blue -52.5

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alonzo MenifieldTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

30% acc · 75%

Head

50% acc · 43%

100% acc · 13%

Body

57% acc · 57%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

18% acc · 38%

Distance

50% acc · 57%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

60% acc · 43%

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alonzo Menifield rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Alonzo Menifield edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:22

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

36%

Sig Str %

53%

8 / 23

Total Strikes

21 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	7 / 13	21 / 28	0 / 1	0
1	Alonzo Menifield	8 / 22	8 / 23	0 / 0	0

Alonzo Menifield

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20