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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alonzo Menifield won · U-DEC R3

Elo1525

Elo1458

Alonzo MenifieldvsEd HermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Alonzo Menifield won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlonzo Menifield: Well-roundedvsEd Herman: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Alonzo Menifield wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Alonzo Menifield wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alonzo Menifield at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alonzo Menifield has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alonzo Menifield

Red Corner

Ed Herman

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1525

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alonzo Menifield

oldest →

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Aug 24

vs Julius Walker · Feb 25

vs Oumar Sy · Jun 25

KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Nov 25

KOvs Zhang Mingyang · May 26

latest

Ed Herman

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Oct 18

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 19

vs Khadis Ibragimov · Nov 19

SUBvs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 20

KOvs Zak Cummings · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alonzo MenifieldMetricEd Herman

3.77

Strikes / min

3.31

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

50%

Strike defense

42%

0.50

TDs / 15 min

1.96

78%

Takedown defense

59%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alonzo MenifieldEd Herman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alonzo Menifield(10 fights)Ed Herman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.5|Blue -67.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alonzo MenifieldTargetEd Herman

By target zone

61% acc · 81%

Head

27% acc · 76%

100% acc · 4%

Body

90% acc · 22%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

65% acc · 75%

Distance

32% acc · 93%

62% acc · 14%

Clinch

43% acc · 7%

83% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alonzo Menifield rounds

even

Ed Herman rounds

Round 1Alonzo Menifield edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alonzo Menifield edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Alonzo Menifield edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 140

Sig Strikes

41 / 126

65.3%

Sig Str %

32%

94 / 141

Total Strikes

42 / 127

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ed Herman	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0
1	Alonzo Menifield	23 / 37	23 / 37	0 / 0
2	Ed Herman	16 / 51	16 / 51	0 / 0
2	Alonzo Menifield	42 / 58	42 / 58	0 / 0
3	Ed Herman	9 / 35	10 / 36	0 / 0
3	Alonzo Menifield	28 / 45	29 / 46	1 / 1

Alonzo Menifield

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17

Ed Herman

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16