Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allan Nascimento enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Mitch Raposo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Allan Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Allan NascimentoW4 streak
oldest →L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Allan NascimentoMetricMitch Raposo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.53Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-0.92
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Allan Nascimento(6 fights)Mitch Raposo(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.2|Blue +3.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Allan NascimentoTargetMitch Raposo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:24
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:26
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control3:31
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:21Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
