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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Allan Nascimento won · SUB R2

Elo1523

Elo1458

Allan NascimentovsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Allan Nascimento won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:13

Style matchupAllan Nascimento: Submission grapplervsCody Durden: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Allan Nascimento wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Allan Nascimento at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Cody Durden has lost 56% of fights by sub.
Cody Durden has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Allan Nascimento

Red Corner

Cody Durden

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1523

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Allan Nascimento

oldest →

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21

vs Jake Hadley · May 22

SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23

vs Jafel Filho · May 25

DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26

latest

Cody Durden

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Dec 24

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Allan NascimentoMetricCody Durden

3.06

Strikes / min

3.24

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

52%

Strike defense

50%

1.26

TDs / 15 min

3.99

37%

Takedown defense

56%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.53Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Allan NascimentoCody Durden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Allan Nascimento(6 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +65.0|Blue -65.0

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Allan NascimentoTargetCody Durden

By target zone

28% acc · 37%

Head

42% acc · 82%

41% acc · 13%

Body

56% acc · 9%

90% acc · 50%

Leg

71% acc · 9%

By position

45% acc · 98%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Allan Nascimento rounds

even

Cody Durden rounds

Round 1Cody Durden edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:21

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 115

Sig Strikes

57 / 128

44.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

52 / 115

Total Strikes

57 / 128

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Durden	36 / 73	36 / 73	1 / 2	0
1	Allan Nascimento	26 / 58	26 / 58	0 / 1	0
2	Cody Durden	21 / 55	21 / 55	0 / 1	0
2	Allan Nascimento	26 / 57	26 / 57	0 / 0	1

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17