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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Allan Nascimento won · SUB R1
Elo1523
Allan Nascimento
Elo1489

Allan NascimentovsCarlos HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Allan Nascimento won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:16

Style matchupAllan Nascimento: Submission grapplervsCarlos Hernandez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Carlos Hernandez wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Carlos Hernandez at +270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Carlos Hernandez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Carlos Hernandez has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Allan Nascimento
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Hernandez
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+270
(27%)
1523
Elo
1489
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Allan Nascimento
oldest →
L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21
W
vs Jake Hadley · May 22
W
vs Jafel Filho · May 25
W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25
L
DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26
latest
Carlos Hernandez
oldest →
W
vs Denys Bondar · Jun 23
L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 23
L
vs Rei Tsuruya · Jun 24
W
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Nov 24
L
SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Allan NascimentoMetricCarlos Hernandez
3.06
Strikes / min
3.83
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.50
52%
Strike defense
50%
1.26
TDs / 15 min
1.56
37%
Takedown defense
65%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.53evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1516Strikes3.2 vs 4.1Takedowns1.6 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.20Form0.3 vs 1.0
Allan NascimentoCarlos Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Allan Nascimento(6 fights)Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +34.9|Blue -34.9
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Allan NascimentoTargetCarlos Hernandez

By target zone

2
40% acc · 33%
Head
2
40% acc · 67%
2
67% acc · 33%
Body
1
50% acc · 33%
2
67% acc · 33%
Leg
0

By position

6
55% acc · 100%
Distance
3
43% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Allan Nascimento rounds
0
even
0
Carlos Hernandez rounds
Round 1Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control2:23
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 11
Sig Strikes
3 / 7
54%
Sig Str %
42%
9 / 14
Total Strikes
3 / 7
2 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:23
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Carlos Hernandez3 / 73 / 70 / 00
1Allan Nascimento6 / 119 / 142 / 41

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights7