← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1524

Elo1496

Aljamain SterlingvsTJ DillashawUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:44

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsTJ Dillashaw: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Dillashaw has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

TJ Dillashaw

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1524

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

TJ Dillashaw

oldest →

vs John Lineker · Dec 16

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19

vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricTJ Dillashaw

4.26

Strikes / min

5.09

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

59%

Strike defense

62%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.56

44%

Takedown defense

77%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11evenly matched on net striking+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingTJ Dillashaw

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.7|Blue -28.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetTJ Dillashaw

By target zone

75% acc · 78%

Head

15% acc · 38%

87% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

75% acc · 38%

By position

57% acc · 24%

Distance

31% acc · 100%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

90% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

TJ Dillashaw rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns3

Control4:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns2

Control2:46

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 93

Sig Strikes

8 / 26

76.5%

Sig Str %

30%

148 / 181

Total Strikes

13 / 31

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

62.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:06

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Dillashaw	3 / 11	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Aljamain Sterling	30 / 45	80 / 103	3 / 4	1
2	TJ Dillashaw	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Aljamain Sterling	42 / 48	68 / 78	2 / 4	1

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

TJ Dillashaw

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18