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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Sean O'Malley won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1524

Elo1533

Aljamain SterlingvsSean O'MalleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Malley won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:51

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsSean O'Malley: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Malley wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Sean O'Malley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Malley at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean O'Malley has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean O'Malley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Sean O'Malley

Blue Corner

-258

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1524

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · May 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Sean O'MalleyW2 streak

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 24

SUBvs Merab Dvalishvili · Jun 25

vs Song Yadong · Jan 26

KOvs Aiemann Zahabi · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricSean O'Malley

4.26

Strikes / min

6.05

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

59%

Strike defense

60%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

0.24

44%

Takedown defense

60%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11evenly matched on net striking+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingSean O'Malley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Sean O'Malley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.7|Blue +8.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetSean O'Malley

By target zone

25% acc · 18%

Head

72% acc · 72%

30% acc · 18%

Body

67% acc · 24%

85% acc · 65%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

48% acc · 94%

Distance

63% acc · 40%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

78% acc · 56%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Sean O'Malley rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:21

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sean O'Malley edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

25 / 35

47%

Sig Str %

68.5%

24 / 46

Total Strikes

26 / 36

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean O'Malley	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	13 / 26	20 / 37	0 / 1
2	Sean O'Malley	17 / 21	18 / 22	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 1

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Sean O'Malley

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14