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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1378

Aljamain SterlingvsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2017Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsRenan Barao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1524

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Renan BaraoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricRenan Barao

4.26

Strikes / min

3.78

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

59%

Strike defense

57%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.49

44%

Takedown defense

91%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingRenan Barao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +146.4|Blue -146.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

51% acc · 58%

Head

15% acc · 53%

65% acc · 21%

Body

46% acc · 32%

88% acc · 21%

Leg

43% acc · 16%

By position

44% acc · 51%

Distance

13% acc · 47%

88% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

90% acc · 39%

Ground

62% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:46Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:50

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:50

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 121

Sig Strikes

19 / 85

59.3%

Sig Str %

23%

112 / 166

Total Strikes

65 / 138

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:40

Ctrl Time

4:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renan Barao	10 / 30	50 / 75	1 / 1
1	Aljamain Sterling	11 / 17	22 / 31	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	4 / 17	5 / 20	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	36 / 54	55 / 73	1 / 1
3	Renan Barao	5 / 38	10 / 43	1 / 2
3	Aljamain Sterling	24 / 50	35 / 62	0 / 0

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17