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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Aljamain Sterling won · S-DEC R5
Elo1524
Aljamain Sterling
Elo1532
Petr Yan

Aljamain SterlingvsPetr YanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsPetr Yan: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at +310 American odds

+$310 profit

$410 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Petr Yan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Petr Yan has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).
  • Aljamain Sterling has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling
Red Corner
VS
Petr Yan
Blue Corner
+310
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-410
(80%)
1524
Elo
1532
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'7"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23
W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24
L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24
W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25
W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26
latest
Petr YanW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23
W
vs Song Yadong · Mar 24
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24
W
vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25
W
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricPetr Yan
4.26
Strikes / min
5.16
2.15
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
59%
Strike defense
59%
2.54
TDs / 15 min
1.70
44%
Takedown defense
86%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.11Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1639 vs 1596Strikes4.6 vs 5.1Takedowns2.3 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.10Form1.1 vs 0.5
Aljamain SterlingPetr Yan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Petr Yan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -7.9|Blue +7.9
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +238.0|Blue -238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetPetr Yan

By target zone

29
44% acc · 47%
Head
32
45% acc · 51%
26
74% acc · 42%
Body
17
94% acc · 27%
7
78% acc · 11%
Leg
14
100% acc · 22%

By position

42
50% acc · 68%
Distance
46
57% acc · 73%
5
71% acc · 8%
Clinch
8
73% acc · 13%
15
79% acc · 24%
Ground
9
75% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Aljamain Sterling rounds
0
even
2
Petr Yan rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control3:50
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control3:43
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 4Petr Yan edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:51Control
Round 5Petr Yan edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:58
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
62 / 110
Sig Strikes
63 / 103
59.4%
Sig Str %
63.4%
91 / 143
Total Strikes
139 / 186
2 / 22
TDs
0 / 0
15%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:31
Ctrl Time
5:52

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Petr Yan13 / 2613 / 260 / 00
1Aljamain Sterling19 / 4020 / 410 / 20
2Aljamain Sterling17 / 2942 / 551 / 20
2Petr Yan4 / 521 / 240 / 00
3Aljamain Sterling6 / 138 / 181 / 40
3Petr Yan8 / 1520 / 270 / 00
4Petr Yan18 / 2548 / 570 / 00
4Aljamain Sterling8 / 108 / 100 / 40
5Aljamain Sterling12 / 1813 / 190 / 100
5Petr Yan20 / 3237 / 520 / 00

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights23

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights15