← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1488

Aljamain SterlingvsPedro MunhozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsPedro Munhoz: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Pedro Munhoz has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Pedro Munhoz

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1524

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Pedro MunhozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricPedro Munhoz

4.26

Strikes / min

5.38

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

6.29

59%

Strike defense

55%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

0.48

44%

Takedown defense

82%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 3.02 — meaningful gap-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingPedro Munhoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.8|Blue -35.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetPedro Munhoz

By target zone

123

49% acc · 71%

Head

28% acc · 42%

49% acc · 21%

Body

45% acc · 28%

58% acc · 9%

Leg

76% acc · 30%

By position

172

51% acc · 99%

Distance

102

40% acc · 97%

18% acc · 1%

Clinch

38% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Pedro Munhoz rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes62

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes64

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

174 / 349

Sig Strikes

105 / 265

49.3%

Sig Str %

39.3%

175 / 350

Total Strikes

108 / 269

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pedro Munhoz	27 / 86	27 / 86	0 / 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	48 / 103	48 / 103	0 / 3
2	Pedro Munhoz	41 / 91	44 / 95	0 / 0
2	Aljamain Sterling	62 / 109	62 / 109	0 / 2
3	Pedro Munhoz	37 / 88	37 / 88	0 / 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	64 / 137	65 / 138	0 / 2

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20