← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Aljamain Sterling won · S-DEC R5

Elo1524

Elo1472

Aljamain SterlingvsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Henry Cejudo has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1524

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

180.34 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Henry CejudoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 19

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricHenry Cejudo

4.26

Strikes / min

3.83

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

59%

Strike defense

57%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.78

44%

Takedown defense

72%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.2|Blue -52.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -896.0|Blue +896.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

46% acc · 38%

Head

35% acc · 35%

83% acc · 37%

Body

81% acc · 30%

89% acc · 25%

Leg

89% acc · 34%

By position

103

59% acc · 76%

Distance

54% acc · 83%

86% acc · 18%

Clinch

76% acc · 16%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:37

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:30

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 4Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control0:38

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 5Henry Cejudo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:15

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

135 / 210

Sig Strikes

99 / 174

65.6%

Sig Str %

53.8%

186 / 261

Total Strikes

143 / 219

4 / 15

TDs

3 / 8

23%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:00

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Cejudo	7 / 18	15 / 26	1 / 1
1	Aljamain Sterling	20 / 34	29 / 43	2 / 3
2	Henry Cejudo	31 / 53	31 / 53	0 / 2
2	Aljamain Sterling	29 / 55	29 / 55	0 / 2
3	Henry Cejudo	15 / 29	38 / 53	1 / 1
3	Aljamain Sterling	26 / 29	45 / 48	1 / 6
4	Henry Cejudo	19 / 33	24 / 38	0 / 2
4	Aljamain Sterling	36 / 52	52 / 68	1 / 3
5	Aljamain Sterling	24 / 40	31 / 47	0 / 1
5	Henry Cejudo	27 / 41	35 / 49	1 / 2

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16