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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · SUB R1

Elo1524

Elo1484

Aljamain SterlingvsCory SandhagenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Saturday, June 6, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:28

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsCory Sandhagen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Cory Sandhagen wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cory Sandhagen at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1524

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Cory SandhagenL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Aug 23

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Oct 25

DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricCory Sandhagen

4.26

Strikes / min

4.86

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

59%

Strike defense

56%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.15

44%

Takedown defense

56%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingCory Sandhagen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.8|Blue -39.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetCory Sandhagen

By target zone

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

67% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Cory Sandhagen rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 3

Sig Strikes

1 / 2

66%

Sig Str %

50%

10 / 12

Total Strikes

1 / 2

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cory Sandhagen	1 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Aljamain Sterling	2 / 3	10 / 12	0 / 1	2

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17