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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · SUB R2

Elo1524

Elo1488

Aljamain SterlingvsCody StamannUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:42

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsCody Stamann: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cody Stamann enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cody Stamann has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Cody Stamann

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1524

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Cody StamannL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jun 22

vs Luan Lacerda · Jan 23

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · May 23

vs Taylor Lapilus · Jun 24

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricCody Stamann

4.26

Strikes / min

4.32

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

59%

Strike defense

60%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

2.17

44%

Takedown defense

76%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingCody Stamann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Cody Stamann(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.1|Blue -36.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetCody Stamann

By target zone

41% acc · 70%

Head

6% acc · 17%

54% acc · 21%

Body

86% acc · 50%

60% acc · 9%

Leg

80% acc · 33%

By position

25% acc · 39%

Distance

20% acc · 58%

75% acc · 9%

Clinch

63% acc · 42%

89% acc · 52%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Cody Stamann rounds

Round 1Cody Stamann edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:49

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control2:03

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 74

Sig Strikes

12 / 43

44%

Sig Str %

33%

63 / 105

Total Strikes

20 / 51

2 / 9

TDs

3 / 3

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Stamann	6 / 30	13 / 37	2 / 2	0
1	Aljamain Sterling	12 / 37	40 / 66	0 / 5	1
2	Cody Stamann	6 / 13	7 / 14	1 / 1	0
2	Aljamain Sterling	21 / 37	23 / 39	2 / 4	1

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Cody Stamann

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights14