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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1493

Aljamain SterlingvsBrett JohnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAljamain Sterling: WrestlervsBrett Johns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Brett Johns wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brett Johns at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Brett Johns

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1524

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Brett JohnsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Albert Morales · Jul 17

SUBvs Joe Soto · Dec 17

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 18

SUBvs Tony Gravely · Jan 20

vs Montel Jackson · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricBrett Johns

4.26

Strikes / min

2.86

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

59%

Strike defense

53%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

4.92

44%

Takedown defense

58%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingBrett Johns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Brett Johns(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.6|Blue -31.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetBrett Johns

By target zone

45% acc · 45%

Head

29% acc · 85%

73% acc · 42%

Body

50% acc · 15%

92% acc · 13%

Leg

0% acc

By position

51% acc · 60%

Distance

22% acc · 63%

81% acc · 29%

Clinch

77% acc · 37%

59% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Brett Johns rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:23

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control0:58

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 152

Sig Strikes

27 / 89

57.3%

Sig Str %

30.7%

117 / 181

Total Strikes

56 / 119

3 / 9

TDs

1 / 5

24.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

6:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brett Johns	6 / 34	16 / 45	1 / 2
1	Aljamain Sterling	18 / 39	30 / 51	0 / 1
2	Brett Johns	15 / 39	25 / 49	0 / 1
2	Aljamain Sterling	44 / 72	49 / 78	1 / 3
3	Brett Johns	6 / 16	15 / 25	0 / 2
3	Aljamain Sterling	27 / 41	38 / 52	2 / 5

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Brett Johns

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7