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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · U-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1491

Aljamain SterlingvsAugusto MendesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · Saturday, April 15, 2017Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Augusto Mendes has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Aljamain Sterling has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling

Red Corner

Augusto Mendes

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1524

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Augusto Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Feb 16

vs Frankie Saenz · Jan 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aljamain SterlingMetricAugusto Mendes

4.26

Strikes / min

2.42

2.15

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

59%

Strike defense

56%

2.54

TDs / 15 min

1.75

44%

Takedown defense

80%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.11Δ 3.60 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Aljamain SterlingAugusto Mendes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Augusto Mendes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.5|Blue -33.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aljamain SterlingTargetAugusto Mendes

By target zone

31% acc · 34%

Head

22% acc · 53%

84% acc · 55%

Body

64% acc · 23%

56% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

45% acc · 64%

Distance

29% acc · 80%

83% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

63% acc · 24%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aljamain Sterling rounds

even

Augusto Mendes rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control3:24

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:27

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control1:09

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 161

Sig Strikes

30 / 91

51%

Sig Str %

35.3%

162 / 246

Total Strikes

76 / 145

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:00

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Augusto Mendes	9 / 20	33 / 48	0 / 0
1	Aljamain Sterling	23 / 46	43 / 68	1 / 1
2	Augusto Mendes	12 / 30	24 / 45	0 / 3
2	Aljamain Sterling	23 / 46	59 / 85	1 / 2
3	Augusto Mendes	9 / 41	19 / 52	0 / 0
3	Aljamain Sterling	37 / 69	60 / 93	0 / 3

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23

Augusto Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3