Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1402

Alistair OvereemvsWalt HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:00

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsWalt Harris: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(73.2%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Walt Harris has lost 56% of fights by KO.
Walt Harris is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Walt Harris (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Walt Harris

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1493

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'5"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Walt HarrisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Spitz · Jun 18

KOvs Serghei Spivac · May 19

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 19

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricWalt Harris

3.67

Strikes / min

3.05

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.29

73%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap-0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemWalt Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Walt Harris(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +91.5|Blue -91.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetWalt Harris

By target zone

77% acc · 85%

Head

46% acc · 76%

100% acc · 12%

Body

86% acc · 24%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

70% acc · 10%

Distance

32% acc · 24%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

81% acc · 88%

Ground

69% acc · 72%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Walt Harris rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:56

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control1:26

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 85

Sig Strikes

25 / 48

79.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

97 / 115

Total Strikes

25 / 48

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:22

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Walt Harris	24 / 42	24 / 42	0 / 0
1	Alistair Overeem	27 / 33	48 / 55	1 / 1
2	Walt Harris	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	41 / 52	49 / 60	0 / 0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Walt Harris

StanceSouthpaw

Height77.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights15