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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Travis Browne won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1361

Alistair OvereemvsTravis BrowneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Travis Browne won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsTravis Browne: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Travis Browne wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Travis Browne enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Travis Browne has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Travis Browne is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Travis Browne

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'6"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Travis BrowneL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jan 16

KOvs Cain Velasquez · Jul 16

vs Fabricio Werdum · Sep 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 17

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricTravis Browne

3.67

Strikes / min

2.93

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

57%

Strike defense

42%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.21

73%

Takedown defense

75%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 2.61 — meaningful gap-1.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemTravis Browne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Travis Browne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +132.2|Blue -132.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetTravis Browne

By target zone

48% acc · 51%

Head

42% acc · 57%

90% acc · 44%

Body

86% acc · 43%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

0% acc

By position

45% acc · 12%

Distance

43% acc · 64%

68% acc · 61%

Clinch

75% acc · 21%

61% acc · 27%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Travis Browne rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control2:15

Knockdowns2

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 66

Sig Strikes

14 / 27

62%

Sig Str %

51%

46 / 71

Total Strikes

14 / 27

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Travis Browne	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Alistair Overeem	41 / 66	46 / 71	0 / 1	0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Travis Browne

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights16