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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1391
Stefan Struve

Alistair OvereemvsStefan StruveUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · Saturday, December 13, 2014Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:13

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsStefan Struve: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stefan Struve at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
  • Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Alistair Overeem has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Alistair Overeem has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stefan Struve has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Stefan Struve
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1493
Elo
1391
46
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'11"
203.2 cm
Reach
213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest
Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18
W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19
L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricStefan Struve
3.67
Strikes / min
3.12
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.04
57%
Strike defense
46%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.56
73%
Takedown defense
55%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1540Strikes38.6 vs 20.2Takedowns0.2 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.46Form-0.4 vs 0.3
Alistair OvereemStefan Struve

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Stefan Struve(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +102.6|Blue -102.6
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red -552.0|Blue +552.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetStefan Struve

By target zone

12
67% acc · 71%
Head
0
0% acc
5
83% acc · 29%
Body
2
100% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
50% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 18%
Clinch
0
0% acc
14
70% acc · 82%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alistair Overeem rounds
0
even
0
Stefan Struve rounds
Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control2:41
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 25
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
68%
Sig Str %
40%
24 / 32
Total Strikes
4 / 7
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:41
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stefan Struve2 / 54 / 70 / 00
1Alistair Overeem17 / 2524 / 321 / 20

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox
Height83.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights20