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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1538
Sergei Pavlovich

Alistair OvereemvsSergei PavlovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Saturday, November 24, 2018Beijing, China

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:21

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
  • Sergei Pavlovich has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1493
Elo
1538
46
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'3"
203.2 cm
Reach
213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest
Sergei PavlovichW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25
W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricSergei Pavlovich
3.67
Strikes / min
4.43
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.48
73%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1500Strikes30.0 vs —Takedowns0.2 vs —Sub Atts0.21 vs —Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Alistair OvereemSergei Pavlovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901505152015351550← oldermost recent →
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -45.2|Blue +45.2
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetSergei Pavlovich

By target zone

13
81% acc · 59%
Head
9
36% acc · 69%
8
89% acc · 36%
Body
3
50% acc · 23%
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

3
60% acc · 14%
Distance
8
36% acc · 62%
7
100% acc · 32%
Clinch
5
50% acc · 38%
12
86% acc · 55%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alistair Overeem rounds
0
even
0
Sergei Pavlovich rounds
Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control1:57
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 26
Sig Strikes
13 / 32
84%
Sig Str %
40%
26 / 31
Total Strikes
18 / 37
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:57
Ctrl Time
0:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sergei Pavlovich13 / 3218 / 370 / 20
1Alistair Overeem22 / 2626 / 311 / 20

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights12