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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1369

Alistair OvereemvsMark HuntUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:44

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsMark Hunt: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Mark Hunt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Mark Hunt

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1493

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

5'10"

203.2 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Mark HuntL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 16

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricMark Hunt

3.67

Strikes / min

2.81

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

57%

Strike defense

51%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.51

73%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemMark Hunt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Mark Hunt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +124.1|Blue -124.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetMark Hunt

By target zone

55% acc · 20%

Head

31% acc · 57%

86% acc · 55%

Body

83% acc · 24%

93% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 19%

By position

71% acc · 58%

Distance

30% acc · 57%

92% acc · 42%

Clinch

82% acc · 43%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Mark Hunt rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control2:55

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:38

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 70

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

81%

Sig Str %

39%

59 / 76

Total Strikes

27 / 59

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:33

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mark Hunt	9 / 26	10 / 28	0 / 0
1	Alistair Overeem	24 / 32	24 / 33	0 / 1
2	Mark Hunt	10 / 17	15 / 23	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	22 / 28	25 / 32	0 / 0
3	Mark Hunt	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0
3	Alistair Overeem	9 / 10	10 / 11	0 / 0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16