← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won · KO/TKO R5

Elo1493

Elo1502

Alistair OvereemvsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won

KO/TKO · Round 5 · 4:56

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1493

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik

3.67

Strikes / min

3.48

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

57%

Strike defense

52%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.00

73%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

63% acc · 65%

Head

34% acc · 64%

92% acc · 16%

Body

80% acc · 18%

88% acc · 19%

Leg

80% acc · 18%

By position

61% acc · 62%

Distance

38% acc · 76%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

70% acc · 21%

95% acc · 26%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:14

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control2:06

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:30

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:29

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 105

Sig Strikes

89 / 209

71.2%

Sig Str %

42.6%

101 / 135

Total Strikes

109 / 229

2 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

16.6%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:19

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	5 / 13	8 / 16	0 / 0
1	Alistair Overeem	13 / 15	27 / 30	1 / 2
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	19 / 35	28 / 44	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	14 / 20	17 / 24	0 / 1
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	14 / 33	22 / 41	0 / 0
3	Alistair Overeem	18 / 25	27 / 35	1 / 3
4	Alistair Overeem	18 / 28	18 / 28	0 / 1
4	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	30 / 73	30 / 73	0 / 0
5	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	21 / 55	21 / 55	0 / 0
5	Alistair Overeem	11 / 17	12 / 18	0 / 3

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15