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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou

Alistair OvereemvsFrancis NgannouUFC Prediction Result

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · Saturday, December 2, 2017Detroit, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:42

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Alistair Overeem has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1493
Elo
1496
46
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest
Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricFrancis Ngannou
3.67
Strikes / min
2.33
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
57%
Strike defense
41%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.76
73%
Takedown defense
71%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1563 vs 1563Strikes34.3 vs 15.6Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.08 vs 0.20Form0.7 vs 1.0
Alistair OvereemFrancis Ngannou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.7|Blue +2.7
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -161.0|Blue +161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetFrancis Ngannou

By target zone

1
25% acc · 100%
Head
4
33% acc · 67%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 33%

By position

1
25% acc · 100%
Distance
2
20% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
3
100% acc · 50%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alistair Overeem rounds
0
even
1
Francis Ngannou rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 4
Sig Strikes
6 / 14
25%
Sig Str %
42%
1 / 4
Total Strikes
11 / 20
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Ngannou6 / 1411 / 200 / 00
1Alistair Overeem1 / 41 / 40 / 10

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14