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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1495

Alistair OvereemvsCurtis BlaydesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · Saturday, June 9, 2018Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:56

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsCurtis Blaydes: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Curtis Blaydes

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricCurtis Blaydes

3.67

Strikes / min

4.18

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

57%

Strike defense

53%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

5.12

73%

Takedown defense

35%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23evenly matched on net striking+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemCurtis Blaydes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetCurtis Blaydes

By target zone

38% acc · 43%

Head

67% acc · 86%

100% acc · 57%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 86%

Distance

19% acc · 8%

Clinch

86% acc · 32%

50% acc · 14%

Ground

96% acc · 59%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Curtis Blaydes rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:31Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 12

Sig Strikes

37 / 53

54.3%

Sig Str %

55.7%

24 / 31

Total Strikes

62 / 85

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 4

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Curtis Blaydes	1 / 5	9 / 15	1 / 1	0
1	Alistair Overeem	1 / 3	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Curtis Blaydes	13 / 20	25 / 36	2 / 2	0
2	Alistair Overeem	4 / 5	11 / 12	0 / 0	2
3	Curtis Blaydes	23 / 28	28 / 34	1 / 1	0
3	Alistair Overeem	2 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 0	0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19