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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ben Rothwell won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Elo1494

Alistair OvereemvsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:19

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alistair Overeem has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Ben Rothwell
Blue Corner
-330
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1493
Elo
1494
46
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
W
KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest
Ben Rothwell
oldest →
W
KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20
W
SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21
L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricBen Rothwell
3.67
Strikes / min
3.71
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
4.63
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.68
73%
Takedown defense
70%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1513Strikes43.3 vs 23.7Takedowns0.3 vs 1.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.33Form0.1 vs 0.3
Alistair OvereemBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -154.0|Blue +154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

5
83% acc · 25%
Head
15
60% acc · 88%
7
100% acc · 35%
Body
2
100% acc · 12%
8
100% acc · 40%
Leg
0

By position

18
95% acc · 90%
Distance
12
55% acc · 71%
2
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Alistair Overeem rounds
0
even
1
Ben Rothwell rounds
Round 1Ben Rothwell edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
20 / 21
Sig Strikes
17 / 27
95%
Sig Str %
62%
20 / 21
Total Strikes
22 / 32
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ben Rothwell17 / 2722 / 320 / 00
1Alistair Overeem20 / 2120 / 210 / 10

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights16