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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO
Elo1493
Elo1496

Alistair OvereemvsAugusto SakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Saturday, September 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAugusto Sakai: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Augusto Sakai wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Augusto Sakai at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Alistair Overeem has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem
Red Corner
VS
Augusto Sakai
Blue Corner
-159
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1493
Elo
1496
46
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem
oldest →
W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18
W
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19
W
KOvs Walt Harris · May 20
L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21
latest
Augusto Sakai
oldest →
W
vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20
L
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21
L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21
L
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22
W
vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricAugusto Sakai
3.67
Strikes / min
4.60
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.83
57%
Strike defense
48%
1.42
TDs / 15 min
0.23
73%
Takedown defense
56%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1559 vs 1550Strikes3.7 vs 5.5Takedowns1.4 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Alistair OvereemAugusto Sakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Augusto Sakai(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -3.0|Blue +3.0
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetAugusto Sakai

By target zone

53
73% acc · 58%
Head
66
51% acc · 67%
30
97% acc · 33%
Body
25
74% acc · 25%
9
90% acc · 10%
Leg
8
89% acc · 8%

By position

28
65% acc · 30%
Distance
62
49% acc · 63%
16
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
35
81% acc · 35%
48
87% acc · 52%
Ground
2
67% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Alistair Overeem rounds
0
even
3
Augusto Sakai rounds
Round 1Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control
Round 2Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control1:12
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:58Control
Round 3Augusto Sakai edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:44
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 4Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control2:18
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 5Alistair Overeem edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:15
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
92 / 114
Sig Strikes
99 / 173
82%
Sig Str %
56.8%
106 / 131
Total Strikes
120 / 196
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:29
Ctrl Time
2:22

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Augusto Sakai22 / 3624 / 380 / 00
1Alistair Overeem11 / 1812 / 190 / 00
2Augusto Sakai24 / 4028 / 440 / 00
2Alistair Overeem13 / 1614 / 170 / 00
3Augusto Sakai34 / 5448 / 690 / 00
3Alistair Overeem23 / 2726 / 311 / 10
4Alistair Overeem40 / 4849 / 591 / 10
4Augusto Sakai19 / 4320 / 450 / 00
5Augusto Sakai0 / 00 / 00 / 00
5Alistair Overeem5 / 55 / 51 / 10

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights20

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights9