← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Antonio Silva won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1493

Elo1358

Alistair OvereemvsAntonio SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Antonio Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:25

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAntonio Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Antonio Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -440 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Antonio Silva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Antonio Silva is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Antonio Silva

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1493

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Antonio SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Feb 15

KOvs Soa Palelei · Aug 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Nov 15

KOvs Stefan Struve · May 16

KOvs Roy Nelson · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricAntonio Silva

3.67

Strikes / min

2.89

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

57%

Strike defense

50%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.82

73%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemAntonio Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Antonio Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.2|Blue -135.2

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetAntonio Silva

By target zone

58% acc · 43%

Head

45% acc · 86%

87% acc · 53%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

20% acc · 5%

By position

52% acc · 27%

Distance

37% acc · 52%

82% acc · 35%

Clinch

56% acc · 43%

86% acc · 37%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Antonio Silva rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control2:19

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control4:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Antonio Silva edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 71

Sig Strikes

21 / 48

69.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

73 / 95

Total Strikes

42 / 74

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Silva	3 / 13	16 / 27	0 / 1
1	Alistair Overeem	22 / 32	32 / 43	0 / 0
2	Antonio Silva	4 / 15	12 / 27	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	27 / 36	39 / 49	1 / 1
3	Antonio Silva	14 / 20	14 / 20	0 / 0
3	Alistair Overeem	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Antonio Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights10