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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1492

Alistair OvereemvsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:12

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1493

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricAndrei Arlovski

3.67

Strikes / min

3.82

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

57%

Strike defense

57%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.37

73%

Takedown defense

76%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

68% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 63%

89% acc · 35%

Body

100% acc · 19%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

60% acc · 19%

By position

90% acc · 39%

Distance

45% acc · 81%

80% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

67% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:11

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 30

Sig Strikes

16 / 33

76%

Sig Str %

40.5%

33 / 41

Total Strikes

29 / 46

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:19

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 26	27 / 39	0 / 0
1	Alistair Overeem	10 / 13	20 / 24	1 / 1
2	Andrei Arlovski	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	13 / 17	13 / 17	0 / 0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27