← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · KO/TKO

Elo1493

Elo1535

Alistair OvereemvsAlexander VolkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Saturday, February 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

KO/TKO

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAlexander Volkov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkov at -182 American odds

+$55 profit

$155 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-182

(65%)

1493

Elo

1535

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'7"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair OvereemW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

latest

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tai Tuivasa · Sep 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricAlexander Volkov

3.67

Strikes / min

4.84

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.54

73%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23evenly matched on net striking+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemAlexander Volkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.3|Blue +42.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetAlexander Volkov

By target zone

23% acc · 30%

Head

58% acc · 87%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

62% acc · 74%

Clinch

61% acc · 20%

Ground

60% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Alexander Volkov rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 20

Sig Strikes

54 / 88

45%

Sig Str %

61%

10 / 20

Total Strikes

54 / 88

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkov	33 / 53	33 / 53	0 / 0
1	Alistair Overeem	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkov	21 / 35	21 / 35	0 / 0
2	Alistair Overeem	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 1

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18