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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1495

Alistair OvereemvsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Saturday, April 20, 2019Saint Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, Russia

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:45

Style matchupAlistair Overeem: Elusive strikervsAleksei Oleinik: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Aleksei Oleinik has lost 63% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alistair Overeem has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alistair Overeem

Red Corner

Aleksei Oleinik

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 18

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Aleksei Oleinik

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21

vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21

SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22

vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alistair OvereemMetricAleksei Oleinik

3.67

Strikes / min

3.29

2.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

57%

Strike defense

44%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

1.82

73%

Takedown defense

37%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alistair OvereemAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alistair Overeem(10 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alistair OvereemTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

85% acc · 79%

Head

44% acc · 39%

100% acc · 21%

Body

96% acc · 61%

Leg

By position

63% acc · 17%

Distance

46% acc · 32%

92% acc · 41%

Clinch

81% acc · 68%

100% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alistair Overeem rounds

even

Aleksei Oleinik rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control1:10

Knockdowns1

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 33

Sig Strikes

38 / 58

87%

Sig Str %

65%

31 / 35

Total Strikes

78 / 101

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aleksei Oleinik	38 / 58	78 / 101	0 / 0	0
1	Alistair Overeem	29 / 33	31 / 35	0 / 1	0

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights17