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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alice Pereira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1512

Elo1454

Alice PereiravsHailey CowanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Alice Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:24

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Alice Pereira

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Alice Pereira at -125 American odds · hypothetical only

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Model Prediction: Hailey Cowan wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Alice Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alice Pereira has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Hailey Cowan (53.5%).
Alice Pereira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alice Pereira

Red Corner

Hailey Cowan

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1512

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alice Pereira

oldest →

vs Montse Rendon · Sep 25

latest

Hailey CowanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Apr 23

SUBvs Nora Cornolle · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alice PereiraMetricHailey Cowan

2.83

Strikes / min

2.66

3.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.92

66%

Strike defense

40%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.95

75%

Takedown defense

80%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alice PereiraHailey Cowan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alice Pereira(2 fights)Hailey Cowan(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +57.8|Blue -57.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alice PereiraTargetHailey Cowan

By target zone

39% acc · 66%

Head

40% acc · 55%

67% acc · 31%

Body

63% acc · 32%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

42% acc · 84%

Distance

43% acc · 74%

60% acc · 9%

Clinch

88% acc · 23%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alice Pereira rounds

even

Hailey Cowan rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Hailey Cowan edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:09Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 71

Sig Strikes

31 / 64

43%

Sig Str %

52.5%

86 / 128

Total Strikes

56 / 97

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

4:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hailey Cowan	18 / 44	30 / 59	1 / 2
1	Alice Pereira	24 / 50	37 / 63	0 / 0
2	Hailey Cowan	13 / 20	26 / 38	1 / 1
2	Alice Pereira	8 / 21	49 / 65	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Alice Pereira

Odds

-125

Market-implied probability

Alice Pereira 53%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Alice Pereira (model pick · research)$180

Hailey Cowan$200

53% market-implied · model 58% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Alice Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Hailey Cowan

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4