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Strawweight
3 Rounds
Alice Ardelean won · Submission R2
Elo1540
Elo1460

Alice ArdeleanvsPolyana VianaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Alice Ardelean won

Submission · Round 2 · 4:36

Model Prediction: Alice Ardelean wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Alice Ardelean wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Polyana Viana enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Alice Ardelean has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Polyana Viana has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alice Ardelean
Red Corner
VS
Polyana Viana
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1540
Elo
1460
34
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
157.48 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alice ArdeleanW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 24
L
vs Melissa Martinez · Oct 24
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · May 25
W
vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · Nov 25
latest
Polyana VianaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Tabatha Ricci · May 22
W
KOvs Jinh Yu Frey · Nov 22
L
SUBvs Iasmin Lucindo · Aug 23
L
KOvs Gillian Robertson · Jan 24
L
SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alice ArdeleanMetricPolyana Viana
7.35
Strikes / min
2.74
5.20
Strikes absorbed / min
2.50
62%
Strike defense
53%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
0.75
85%
Takedown defense
35%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.15Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap+0.24
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501478150515331560← oldermost recent →
Alice Ardelean(5 fights)Polyana Viana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +80.0|Blue -80.0
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -189.0|Blue +189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alice Ardelean

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights4

Polyana Viana

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights11