Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alice Ardelean won · U-DEC R3

Elo1540

Elo1471

Alice ArdeleanvsMontserrat Conejo RuizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alice Ardelean won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alice Ardelean wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Alice Ardelean wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alice Ardelean at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alice Ardelean has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alice Ardelean has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Montserrat Conejo Ruiz (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Alice Ardelean

Red Corner

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1540

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'3"

Height

5'0"

157.48 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alice ArdeleanW2 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 24

vs Melissa Martinez · Oct 24

vs Rayanne dos Santos · May 25

SUBvs Polyana Viana · May 26

latest

Montserrat Conejo RuizL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jaqueline Amorim · Aug 23

KOvs Eduarda Moura · Nov 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alice ArdeleanMetricMontserrat Conejo Ruiz

7.35

Strikes / min

2.21

5.20

Strikes absorbed / min

6.19

62%

Strike defense

44%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.75

85%

Takedown defense

44%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.15Δ 6.13 — meaningful gap-3.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alice ArdeleanMontserrat Conejo Ruiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alice Ardelean(5 fights)Montserrat Conejo Ruiz(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.0|Blue -69.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -574.0|Blue +574.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alice ArdeleanTargetMontserrat Conejo Ruiz

By target zone

103

44% acc · 75%

Head

23% acc · 64%

77% acc · 17%

Body

57% acc · 5%

80% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 32%

By position

137

49% acc · 99%

Distance

30% acc · 96%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

23% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alice Ardelean rounds

even

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz rounds

Round 1Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:15

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes57

Takedowns0

Control0:15

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control0:11

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

138 / 280

Sig Strikes

85 / 282

48.3%

Sig Str %

30%

146 / 288

Total Strikes

91 / 291

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

33.3%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Montserrat Conejo Ruiz	27 / 103	28 / 106	0 / 1
1	Alice Ardelean	35 / 91	36 / 92	0 / 1
2	Montserrat Conejo Ruiz	28 / 93	30 / 96	0 / 3
2	Alice Ardelean	57 / 102	58 / 103	0 / 1
3	Montserrat Conejo Ruiz	30 / 86	33 / 89	1 / 2
3	Alice Ardelean	46 / 87	52 / 93	1 / 1

Alice Ardelean

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4

Montserrat Conejo Ruiz

StanceSouthpaw

Height60.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights3