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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Joseph Morales won · SUB R2

Elo1505

Elo1532

Alibi IdirisvsJoseph MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Morales won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:04

Style matchupAlibi Idiris: WrestlervsJoseph Morales: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Joseph Morales wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Joseph Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Morales at +385 American odds

+$385 profit

$485 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alibi Idiris has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Alibi Idiris

Red Corner

Joseph Morales

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1505

Elo

1532

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alibi Idiris

oldest →

vs Ode Osbourne · Feb 26

latest

Joseph Morales

oldest →

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18

vs Eric Shelton · Nov 18

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alibi IdirisMetricJoseph Morales

2.51

Strikes / min

2.00

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

60%

Strike defense

57%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

1.14

66%

Takedown defense

26%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

3.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alibi IdirisJoseph Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alibi Idiris(2 fights)Joseph Morales(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.7|Blue +26.7

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alibi IdirisTargetJoseph Morales

By target zone

26% acc · 32%

Head

34% acc · 52%

89% acc · 61%

Body

72% acc · 45%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

46% acc · 79%

Distance

38% acc · 62%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 31%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alibi Idiris rounds

even

Joseph Morales rounds

Round 1Joseph Morales edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:23

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 2Joseph Morales edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:41

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 56

Sig Strikes

29 / 63

50%

Sig Str %

44.5%

50 / 82

Total Strikes

44 / 86

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

3:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joseph Morales	10 / 24	19 / 40	2 / 3	1
1	Alibi Idiris	18 / 27	37 / 49	0 / 1	0
2	Joseph Morales	19 / 39	25 / 46	0 / 2	1
2	Alibi Idiris	10 / 29	13 / 33	0 / 0	0

Alibi Idiris

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Joseph Morales

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5