← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Tony Kelley won · U-DEC

Elo1493

Elo1495

Ali AlQaisivsTony KelleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tony Kelley won

U-DEC

Style matchupAli AlQaisi: WrestlervsTony Kelley: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tony Kelley wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Tony Kelley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tony Kelley at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ali AlQaisi has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tony Kelley (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ali AlQaisi

Red Corner

Tony Kelley

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1493

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ali AlQaisiNo prior UFC fights on record.

Tony Kelley

oldest →

KOvs Randy Costa · Dec 21

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ali AlQaisiMetricTony Kelley

2.43

Strikes / min

5.55

1.97

Strikes absorbed / min

4.85

56%

Strike defense

45%

3.50

TDs / 15 min

0.00

60%

Takedown defense

52%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ali AlQaisiTony Kelley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ali AlQaisi(1 fights)Tony Kelley(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ali AlQaisiTargetTony Kelley

By target zone

29% acc · 41%

Head

26% acc · 48%

50% acc · 10%

Body

56% acc · 22%

74% acc · 48%

Leg

70% acc · 30%

By position

44% acc · 93%

Distance

36% acc · 91%

33% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

33% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ali AlQaisi rounds

even

Tony Kelley rounds

Round 1Ali AlQaisi edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control3:48

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Ali AlQaisi edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:50

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 3Ali AlQaisi edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control0:22

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 67

Sig Strikes

23 / 62

28%

Sig Str %

40.7%

58 / 103

Total Strikes

61 / 109

5 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

49%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:00

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tony Kelley	1 / 2	13 / 16	0 / 0	4
1	Ali AlQaisi	0 / 3	20 / 24	2 / 2	1
2	Tony Kelley	7 / 19	22 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Ali AlQaisi	7 / 19	16 / 32	1 / 4	0
3	Tony Kelley	15 / 41	26 / 55	0 / 0	0
3	Ali AlQaisi	22 / 45	22 / 47	2 / 9	0

Ali AlQaisi

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights1

Tony Kelley

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3