Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marion Reneau won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1404

Alexis DufresnevsMarion ReneauUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marion Reneau won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alexis Dufresne wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Marion Reneau wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexis Dufresne at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Alexis Dufresne

Red Corner

Marion Reneau

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1354

Elo

1404

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexis Dufresne

oldest →

vs Sarah Moras · Jul 14

latest

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexis DufresneMetricMarion Reneau

1.33

Strikes / min

3.20

3.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

60%

Strike defense

59%

1.50

TDs / 15 min

0.62

50%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.00Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexis DufresneMarion Reneau

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexis Dufresne(2 fights)Marion Reneau(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexis DufresneTargetMarion Reneau

By target zone

9% acc · 25%

Head

34% acc · 75%

38% acc · 11%

Body

45% acc · 12%

62% acc · 64%

Leg

92% acc · 13%

By position

23% acc · 93%

Distance

37% acc · 89%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

64% acc · 11%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexis Dufresne rounds

even

Marion Reneau rounds

Round 1Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:14

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 116

Sig Strikes

85 / 221

23.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

33 / 122

Total Strikes

86 / 222

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marion Reneau	30 / 61	30 / 61	0 / 0
1	Alexis Dufresne	10 / 43	15 / 48	0 / 1
2	Marion Reneau	22 / 73	23 / 74	0 / 0
2	Alexis Dufresne	12 / 38	12 / 39	0 / 1
3	Marion Reneau	33 / 87	33 / 87	0 / 0
3	Alexis Dufresne	6 / 35	6 / 35	0 / 1

Alexis Dufresne

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12