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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alexis Davis won · SUB R2

Elo1495

Elo1356

Alexis DavisvsSarah KaufmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Alexis Davis won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:07

Style matchupAlexis Davis: Pressure fightervsSarah Kaufman: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sarah Kaufman wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Alexis Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sarah Kaufman at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sarah Kaufman has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexis Davis

Red Corner

Sarah Kaufman

Blue Corner

+178

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1495

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexis Davis

oldest →

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 19

vs Viviane Araujo · Jul 19

vs Sabina Mazo · Feb 21

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jun 21

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 22

latest

Sarah Kaufman

oldest →

vs Leslie Smith · Apr 14

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexis DavisMetricSarah Kaufman

4.63

Strikes / min

6.65

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.00

54%

Strike defense

62%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

0.38

34%

Takedown defense

81%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18Δ 2.47 — meaningful gap+2.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexis DavisSarah Kaufman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexis Davis(10 fights)Sarah Kaufman(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +139.0|Blue -139.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -80.0|Blue +80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexis DavisTargetSarah Kaufman

By target zone

23% acc · 53%

Head

41% acc · 57%

64% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 12%

82% acc · 26%

Leg

71% acc · 31%

By position

32% acc · 85%

Distance

42% acc · 72%

63% acc · 15%

Clinch

92% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexis Davis rounds

even

Sarah Kaufman rounds

Round 1Sarah Kaufman edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:35

49Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:16

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 99

Sig Strikes

65 / 130

36%

Sig Str %

47%

40 / 106

Total Strikes

76 / 141

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sarah Kaufman	49 / 90	53 / 94	0 / 0	0
1	Alexis Davis	20 / 66	24 / 70	0 / 2	0
2	Sarah Kaufman	16 / 40	23 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Alexis Davis	14 / 33	16 / 36	1 / 1	1

Alexis Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Sarah Kaufman

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3