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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Alexis Davis won · U-DEC R3
Elo1495
Alexis Davis
Elo1353
Rosi Sexton

Alexis DavisvsRosi SextonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · Saturday, June 15, 2013Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Alexis Davis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexis Davis: Pressure fightervsRosi Sexton: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Rosi Sexton wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Alexis Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rosi Sexton at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexis Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rosi Sexton has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Alexis Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexis Davis
Red Corner
VS
Rosi Sexton
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
1495
Elo
1353
41
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'3"
172.72 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexis Davis
oldest →
L
vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 19
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Jul 19
W
vs Sabina Mazo · Feb 21
L
vs Pannie Kianzad · Jun 21
W
vs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 22
latest
Rosi Sexton
oldest →
L
vs Jessica Andrade · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexis DavisMetricRosi Sexton
4.63
Strikes / min
3.31
4.45
Strikes absorbed / min
7.42
54%
Strike defense
41%
0.95
TDs / 15 min
0.75
34%
Takedown defense
80%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.18Δ 4.29 — meaningful gap-4.11
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Alexis Davis(10 fights)Rosi Sexton(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +142.3|Blue -142.3
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexis DavisTargetRosi Sexton

By target zone

33
54% acc · 75%
Head
31
53% acc · 91%
8
89% acc · 18%
Body
2
100% acc · 6%
3
100% acc · 7%
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

23
49% acc · 52%
Distance
24
48% acc · 71%
11
85% acc · 25%
Clinch
0
0% acc
10
77% acc · 23%
Ground
10
100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Alexis Davis rounds
2
even
0
Rosi Sexton rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control1:17
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:51Control
Round 2Alexis Davis edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control3:47
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control1:41
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:21Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
44 / 73
Sig Strikes
34 / 61
62%
Sig Str %
67%
161 / 223
Total Strikes
115 / 158
0 / 3
TDs
1 / 2
0%
TD %
50%
3
Sub Att
0
2
Rev
1
6:45
Ctrl Time
6:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rosi Sexton14 / 2751 / 740 / 10
1Alexis Davis16 / 3220 / 360 / 22
2Rosi Sexton6 / 620 / 251 / 10
2Alexis Davis14 / 1999 / 1320 / 01
3Rosi Sexton14 / 2844 / 590 / 00
3Alexis Davis14 / 2242 / 550 / 10

Alexis Davis

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Rosi Sexton

StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach—
Fights2