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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alexis Davis won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1492

Alexis DavisvsLiz CarmoucheUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Alexis Davis won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexis Davis: Pressure fightervsLiz Carmouche: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexis Davis wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Alexis Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexis Davis at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Liz Carmouche has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexis Davis

Red Corner

Liz Carmouche

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1495

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexis Davis

oldest →

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 19

vs Viviane Araujo · Jul 19

vs Sabina Mazo · Feb 21

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jun 21

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 22

latest

Liz Carmouche

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Apr 15

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Aug 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexis DavisMetricLiz Carmouche

4.63

Strikes / min

2.78

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

54%

Strike defense

61%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

2.57

34%

Takedown defense

65%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexis DavisLiz Carmouche

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexis Davis(10 fights)Liz Carmouche(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexis DavisTargetLiz Carmouche

By target zone

23% acc · 43%

Head

63% acc · 59%

60% acc · 26%

Body

87% acc · 27%

78% acc · 30%

Leg

70% acc · 14%

By position

18% acc · 30%

Distance

50% acc · 41%

60% acc · 39%

Clinch

92% acc · 24%

78% acc · 30%

Ground

94% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexis Davis rounds

even

Liz Carmouche rounds

Round 1Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:36

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:01

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 3Liz Carmouche edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 63

Sig Strikes

49 / 71

38.3%

Sig Str %

69.3%

132 / 182

Total Strikes

191 / 215

1 / 3

TDs

4 / 4

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:51

Ctrl Time

6:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Liz Carmouche	16 / 21	70 / 76	2 / 2	0
1	Alexis Davis	9 / 16	26 / 33	0 / 2	1
2	Liz Carmouche	13 / 19	65 / 71	1 / 1	0
2	Alexis Davis	6 / 22	72 / 94	1 / 1	0
3	Liz Carmouche	20 / 31	56 / 68	1 / 1	0
3	Alexis Davis	8 / 25	34 / 55	0 / 0	1

Alexis Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10