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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jennifer Maia won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1499

Alexis DavisvsJennifer MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jennifer Maia won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexis Davis: Pressure fightervsJennifer Maia: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jennifer Maia wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Jennifer Maia wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jennifer Maia at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jennifer Maia has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Alexis Davis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexis Davis

Red Corner

Jennifer Maia

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1495

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexis Davis

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jul 18

vs Viviane Araujo · Jul 19

vs Sabina Mazo · Feb 21

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jun 21

vs Julija Stoliarenko · Feb 22

latest

Jennifer Maia

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22

vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22

vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22

vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexis DavisMetricJennifer Maia

4.63

Strikes / min

4.35

4.45

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

54%

Strike defense

55%

0.95

TDs / 15 min

0.42

34%

Takedown defense

58%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.18evenly matched on net striking-0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexis DavisJennifer Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexis Davis(10 fights)Jennifer Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.4|Blue +4.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexis DavisTargetJennifer Maia

By target zone

30% acc · 22%

Head

39% acc · 73%

76% acc · 39%

Body

100% acc · 20%

90% acc · 39%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

53% acc · 69%

Distance

43% acc · 82%

78% acc · 29%

Clinch

73% acc · 18%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexis Davis rounds

even

Jennifer Maia rounds

Round 1Jennifer Maia edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:46

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Alexis Davis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:20

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexis Davis edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:08

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 122

Sig Strikes

60 / 128

56.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

107 / 174

Total Strikes

70 / 142

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:14

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jennifer Maia	26 / 42	33 / 53	0 / 0
1	Alexis Davis	21 / 35	30 / 49	0 / 1
2	Jennifer Maia	8 / 28	11 / 31	0 / 0
2	Alexis Davis	10 / 21	34 / 57	1 / 1
3	Jennifer Maia	26 / 58	26 / 58	0 / 0
3	Alexis Davis	41 / 66	43 / 68	0 / 0

Alexis Davis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12