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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Alexia Thainara won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1463

Alexia ThainaravsBruna BrasilUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Alexia Thainara won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexia Thainara: WrestlervsBruna Brasil: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexia Thainara wins(91.8%)

Actual result: Alexia Thainara wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexia Thainara at -480 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexia Thainara has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Alexia Thainara

Red Corner

Bruna Brasil

Blue Corner

-480

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1544

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexia ThainaraW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Molly McCann · Mar 25

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Sep 25

latest

Bruna BrasilL2 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 23

vs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 24

vs Molly McCann · Jul 24

vs Wang Cong · Feb 25

vs Ketlen Souza · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexia ThainaraMetricBruna Brasil

4.62

Strikes / min

2.56

2.46

Strikes absorbed / min

3.75

59%

Strike defense

52%

4.54

TDs / 15 min

1.23

100%

Takedown defense

57%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.16Δ 3.35 — meaningful gap-1.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexia ThainaraBruna Brasil

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexia Thainara(3 fights)Bruna Brasil(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.5|Blue -81.5

Recent Form

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexia ThainaraTargetBruna Brasil

By target zone

35% acc · 44%

Head

45% acc · 35%

68% acc · 34%

Body

88% acc · 41%

73% acc · 22%

Leg

90% acc · 24%

By position

45% acc · 73%

Distance

62% acc · 84%

67% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

62% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexia Thainara rounds

even

Bruna Brasil rounds

Round 1Alexia Thainara edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns3

Control2:16

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexia Thainara edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control3:45

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alexia Thainara edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control3:33

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 150

Sig Strikes

37 / 56

47.7%

Sig Str %

63.3%

137 / 227

Total Strikes

72 / 94

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

53%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:34

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bruna Brasil	16 / 23	25 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Alexia Thainara	29 / 59	41 / 75	3 / 5	1
2	Bruna Brasil	15 / 20	33 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Alexia Thainara	28 / 51	59 / 85	1 / 3	0
3	Bruna Brasil	6 / 13	14 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Alexia Thainara	16 / 40	37 / 67	2 / 3	1

Alexia Thainara

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Bruna Brasil

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7