Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alexandre Pantoja won · Submission R1
Elo1523
Elo1491

Alexandre PantojavsUlka SasakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

Submission · Round 1 · 2:18

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Alexandre Pantoja threatens submissions; Ulka Sasaki has lost 60% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ulka Sasaki (53.5%).
  • Ulka Sasaki has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja
Red Corner
VS
Ulka Sasaki
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1523
Elo
1491
36
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'5"
Height
5'10"
170.18 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja
oldest →
W
vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23
W
vs Steve Erceg · May 24
W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24
W
SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25
L
KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25
latest
Ulka Sasaki
oldest →
W
SUBvs Willie Gates · May 16
L
DECvs Wilson Reis · Feb 17
W
SUBvs Justin Scoggins · Jun 17
L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Sep 17
W
SUBvs Jenel Lausa · Jun 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricUlka Sasaki
4.38
Strikes / min
—
3.88
Strikes absorbed / min
—
49%
Strike defense
—
2.79
TDs / 15 min
—
69%
Takedown defense
—
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1504Strikes63.5 vs 16.5Takedowns0.8 vs 1.6Sub Atts1.25 vs 0.63Form0.4 vs 0.3
Alexandre PantojaUlka Sasaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Ulka Sasaki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +31.6|Blue -31.6
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Ulka Sasaki

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1