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Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexandre Pantoja won · U-DEC R5

Elo1523

Elo1498

Alexandre PantojavsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Alexandre Pantoja won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupAlexandre Pantoja: WrestlervsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Alexandre Pantoja wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alexandre Pantoja

Red Corner

Steve Erceg

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1523

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Jul 23

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Steve Erceg

oldest →

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alexandre PantojaMetricSteve Erceg

4.38

Strikes / min

4.64

3.88

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

49%

Strike defense

55%

2.79

TDs / 15 min

1.13

69%

Takedown defense

67%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alexandre PantojaSteve Erceg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.2|Blue -25.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alexandre PantojaTargetSteve Erceg

By target zone

41% acc · 60%

Head

48% acc · 78%

85% acc · 26%

Body

70% acc · 14%

89% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

46% acc · 77%

Distance

107

52% acc · 96%

88% acc · 11%

Clinch

75% acc · 3%

79% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

even

Steve Erceg rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns2

Control2:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns3

Control1:25

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns3

Control1:53

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:11

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:46

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

125 / 242

Sig Strikes

111 / 212

51.2%

Sig Str %

52%

143 / 262

Total Strikes

129 / 233

9 / 19

TDs

1 / 6

43%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

8:15

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Erceg	17 / 35	19 / 37	0 / 0
1	Alexandre Pantoja	30 / 55	34 / 59	2 / 5
2	Steve Erceg	28 / 43	33 / 51	0 / 1
2	Alexandre Pantoja	23 / 48	27 / 53	3 / 6
3	Steve Erceg	22 / 45	26 / 49	0 / 0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	34 / 57	37 / 60	3 / 3
4	Alexandre Pantoja	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 1
4	Steve Erceg	31 / 63	31 / 63	0 / 3
5	Steve Erceg	13 / 26	20 / 33	1 / 2
5	Alexandre Pantoja	15 / 27	22 / 35	1 / 4

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9